European shares bounce with little conviction shortly after encouraging data on the growth of China’s service sector in July. According to the monthly survey of purchasing managers on SMEs by Caixin category of the index in July it has led to 51.7, a full point lower than in June. To signal the first contraction since March, with a reading below 50 points for the employment chapter. The figure contrasts with that today only spread the day before yesterday by the national statistics institute which instead showed an improvement to 53.9 from 53.7 the previous month.
The protagonists today investigations economic on the service sector in July, which will be complemented similar data on the manufacturing to get the composite index, the barometer for the confidence of the private sector. After 51.9 in June, better than expected, the expectations of economists speculate for the Italian index reading at 51. However, as regards the whole euro area, the forecast is a confirmation of the flash estimate of 22 July in 52.7, four tenths more than the consensus after 52.8 the previous month. For the composite index is the expectation rather than 52.9, as the first estimates, compared with 52.5 in June.
In spite of the adverse climate risk, contrary to the usual realizations hit with particular fury on the German Bund, allowing the exchange to 125 basis points differential Italy / Germany (the return on Italian ten-year 1.22%). This morning, the Bundesbank offers its investors the new Schatz 14 September 2018 to 5 billion euro. At the auction on July 6, the previous benchmark in June 2018 was awarded for 3.438 billion at the average rate of -0.69%, well below the minimum level for the ECB purchases. On a short stretch, again this morning Athens offers titles to 26 weeks to refinance maturing obligations.
The dollar suffers from the gradual fade of the prospects of a close by the Fed, at least in the short term, because of an unconvincing macro framework. The euro / dollar exchange travels to 1.12025 from 1.1225 in yesterday’s close in New York, the dollar / yen to 101.014 from 100.88 and the euro / yen to 113.175 from 113.22. In Milan the FTSE Mib index bounces but only by 0.11% to 16,116 points.
All Unicredit 
(+ 1% to 1,863 €) on the day that meets the board of directors for analyze accounts. The consensus of analysts collected from the same bank expects in the second quarter revenues of 5.699 billion euro, down from 5.735 billion in the same period 2016, and net income to 664 million, up from 522 million in the second quarter of 2015 with provisions for perished on loans down to 893 million (913 million), a net interest income decreased to 2.874 billion from 2.999 billion, commissions also declined to 1.957 billion from 1.997 billion and trading income improved to 551 million from 473 million.
“In the second quarter we expect Unicredit registers a net profit of 762 million euro from 406 million reported in the first quarter of this year. We expect net interest income and flat fees, while the income trading should benefit from some capital gains, primarily related to the sale of Visa Europe “, provide the Imi Bank analysts also expect a 70bps cost of risk (by 63bps in the first quarter),” while we believe that the risks and burdens will be penalized by 0.2 billion euro of deferred tax
” the CET1 should remain broadly stable at 10.5%, “added the Imi Bank analysts, according to which, however, the focus of market will be the evolution of the basic capital and of any indication that the new CEO, Jean Pierre Mustier, could provide a conference call (14.30) with respect to the future strategy of the group. Waiting, imi Bank confirmed the hold rating on the stock (price target under review).
Meanwhile arrived good accounts by the Polish subsidiary of Unicredit , Bank Pekao, which ended the second quarter with net profit an increase of 12%, supported by gains from the sale of Visa Europe and exceeding analysts’ expectations. Profit rose to 690.5 million zloty against 620 million forecast. Moreover, according to Mf-Milano Finanza, the shareholder foundations have begun to evaluate the possibility of a recapitalization but the discussion gets underway only in September.
It redeems now Intesa Sanpaolo (+ 0.60% at 1.84 Euros) which ended the second quarter with a net profit of 901 million euro, slightly down from 940 million a year earlier but above expectations, and confirmed its commitment to distribute cash dividends for the current year 3 billion. According to press sources Ca ‘de Sass is seeking a buyer for its stake of slightly less than 20% of Granarolo.
While there are six subjects in the race for the acquisition of Juliet, the management platform of the Bank’s non-performing loans Monte dei Paschi Siena (+ 3.81% to EUR 0.27), but the process times have lengthened after the operation on non-performing loans with Atlas, according to sources close to the situation. Instead of press sources warn that if, as a result of the constitutional referendum, the government were to change, the consortium of banks for the capital increase of Monte could fall apart. If it is necessary for government intervention, it would be necessary to act by December to prevent the bail in.
also rising Italian Post (+ 0.67% at 6,025 Euros) which ended the first half with revenues Total consolidated 17.7 billion from 15.95 billion a year ago, and net profit to 565 million from 435 million, compared with a consensus for 473 million. Moreover Poste Vita will finalize in the coming days the investment in Atlas 2, the contribution will be less than that of Atlas, said the CEO, Francesco Caio. Heavy, however, Ferragamo (-3.16% to EUR 19.92), which closed the first half with profit and EBITDA up slightly compared to a slight decrease in revenues. The House considers “accessible”, unless extraordinary events, the consensus analyst estimates for year-end that sees revenues around 1,450 million and EBITDA to 333 million.
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