For the Italian gross domestic product, Istat expects growth of 1.1% in 2016, then to an extent greater than in 2015 (+ 0.8%). In the report “Prospects for the Italian economy in 2016″ released today by the National Statistics the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter 2016 (+ 0.3%) “has confirmed, albeit with moderate intensity, the continuation phase expansive Italian economy started at the beginning of the previous year. Some of the factors to support growth such as low energy prices, the reduction of interest rates and the gradual improvement in confidence among operators are expected to produce their effects even in the current year. ” Consumption is also expected to grow: household spending, according to the analysis Istat, is estimated at 1.4% fueled by the increase in disposable income and the improvement of labor market conditions.
From domestic demand contribution to GDP of 1.3% According to Istat
domestic demand excluding inventories would contribute positively to GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points , while net foreign demand and changes in inventories would provide a negative contribution of one-tenth of a percentage point each. Istat, however, warned that “a more ‘decided slowdown of international trade and the possible resurgence of tensions on financial markets are the downside risks to the current forecast horizon framework. Conversely, a more ‘pronounced resumption of the process of capital accumulation, linked to the development of national and European policies, would be a further stimulus to economic growth. “
Inflation increased in the second half year
the estimates contained in document Istat also affect inflation, for which it is expected to increase from the second half of 2016. by scrolling the “economic prospects for the Italian economy,” it said fact that the dynamics of prices should not deviate from the present up to the summer months, but autumn would materialize a turnaround, which would set the trend rate of more sustained values towards the end of the year, although still inferior to ‘ 1 percent. The largest contribution to curbing inflation “by the foreign component is still expected employee costs, with the prices of energy products which would record a negative change in annual average also in 2016,” says the Institute. The moderate evolution of salary increases and the cost of production as a whole would provide an inflationary contribution limited to the prices of the main components of the bottom. Average of 2016 the growth rate of the deflator of household expenditure is estimated at just above zero for the third consecutive year (+ 0.2%). The GDP deflator, reflecting the predominantly external origin of the downward pressure on prices, should mark a faster annual growth (+ 0.8%).
Unemployment rate 11.3%
On the labor front, Istat confirmed the cautious improvement in the overall situation. In 2016, the consolidation of the progress in employment (+ 0.8% in terms of work units) should indeed be accompanied by a reduction in the unemployment rate, which is estimated to settle at 11.3 percent. The rise in employment would be a reflection, in particular, the tax relief for new hires, whose intensity was significantly reduced in the current year.
Foreign Trade, in March exports down the i, 5%
Also today, Istat has provided updated data on the national foreign trade, which in March recorded a cyclical decline for both exports (-1.5% on the month – 1.1% compared to March 2015) for imports, down 2.4% and 5.9% cyclical trend. The trade surplus of 5.4 billion (+3.8 billion in March 2015). In the first quarter of the year the balance reached 9.3 billion (15.2 billion excluding energy products).
Export, red more ‘pronounced for EU markets
the decrease cyclical exports involves both principal export markets, with a more pronounced decrease towards the EU markets (-2.5%). All major groups of goods were down, with the exception of energy products (+ 16.4%) and capital goods (+ 1.9%). The annual fall in exports in March, adds the Mayor, is rather to be ascribed solely to the non-EU (-5.2%). The larger decrease is noted for Mercosur countries (-28.2%) and OPEC countries (-21.6%). Sales to Belgium (+ 16.9%), the US (+ 11.2%), the Czech Republic (+ 8.1%), Japan (+ 7.9%) and France (+5 , 7%) are significantly expanding.
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Export transportation in contrast
sales of refined petroleum products (-24.7%), is in sharp decline, while exports of transport equipment, except motor vehicles (+ 17.9%) oppose the trend decline in exports. In the first quarter of 2016, compared to the last quarter of 2015, the dynamics of exports (-1.7%) was down and was due almost exclusively to the non-EU (-3.0%). Excluding energy products the decrease was lower (-1.0%) and capital goods showed a slight growth (+ 0.2%).
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