Milan
Brake the car, comes back the industry. The first sign less than two years for the revenues of the four wheels coincides with the worst result since August 2013 for the domestic industrial sales, down in March by 3.6% on an annual basis. Not a coincidence, why vehicles have long provided the main support to medium Istat, with cars to “explain” the 70% growth of industrial sales in 2015. The March retreat is also visible in the monthly comparison, a declining by 1.6% in seasonally adjusted explained mainly by the slowdown in the domestic market (-2.6%), while in annual comparison braking is twofold: down 4.4% national demand, -2.2% for revenues made across the border.
A choral fall in terms of macro sectors, with the only positive exception in durable consumer goods, up 4.6%. Elsewhere, only minus signs, with the energy to realize once again the worst performance: -24.8%.
Among the sectors, only grow pharmaceutical, electronic rubber-plastic and transport ( no cars), but these positive performances are obscured from falls made elsewhere, with declines in excess of 9% for metallurgy and textiles and clothing and minus signs for machinery, food, chemicals and electrical equipment. Revenues related to the car, notes the Istat, retreat of 6.5% per annum and for the industry is negative also the budget for the first three months of the year, with revenues down by 3.3%. Sales growth in the area of transport (+ 5.1%) is thus assigned to ships with revenues (+ 38%) and aircraft (+ 24%), therefore, one-off orders. lackluster signals arrive also in perspective, from the side of the orders, a decrease of 3.3% on a monthly basis (especially for the braking of 5.8% across the border) and positive of just a decimal in the annual comparison, also in this case thanks to orders of different means of transport from cars.
by eliminating from the calculation the energy, whose double-digit revenue recede, the manufacturing budget still improves clearly, almost halving the drop 2%. Similar improvement is visible in the budget revenue in the first quarter: excluding energy, between January and March, the overall decline of 1.5% is reset. But to reach the target estimated by the research institutes (+ 0.9% forecast of Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia for 2016 industry revenues at current values) will in any case a significant acceleration in the months to come. Assumptions, however, weighs more than an unknown, starting on the performance of exports, which pays obvious duty to the slowdown in global trade and to the Bric’s crisis. In April, notes the Istat, the extra-EU sales in fact yield 3.6%, making the fourth consecutive monthly decline. unfavorable and energy collapse calendar actually make less bitter the budget of manufacturing in the strict sense, as well as positive is the monthly comparison: + 3.9% seasonally adjusted growth.
And yet, summing between January and April the business for companies on non-EU markets fell by 4.8%, which means 2.9 billion less. China, India and Brazil are continuing in the reduction of purchases, as well as Russia, down by 9.3%. Continuing at this rate the store in Moscow in 2016 will drop to just over 6 billion, 42% less than the peak of 2014. Also hurt the Middle East, North Africa and Japan, with the United States to represent one of the few positive exceptions . An increase of 11.7% in the month, however, linked to the purchase of vessels, by definition one-off orders.
Opposing the day political commentary on Istat data. Numbers for the Minister of Labour and Social Policy, Giuliano Poletti, not concern. “We are at the tail of a crisis lasted eight years – said – even the productive apparatus has its ups and downs, no worries.” Renato Brunetta, leader of Forza Italy in the House, criticized the government: “That does not make economic policy, so you do not save the country, so it is ditching the country, and industry data to prove it.”
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