+ 0.8% growth in 2015 and deficits to 2.6% – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on March 2, 2016 at 7:12.

the Italian economy emerged in 2015 from the last three years of recession (2012-2014) with a volume growth of GDP by 0.8% (+1 , 5% increase in market prices). A push on the domestic product, which remains in volume to levels even lower than those of 2000, was the domestic demand (0.5%) while net foreign demand negatively weighed to three decimal places. The final data on GDP released yesterday by Istat is less than one decimal place than the latest forecasts of the Government of the update report to the Def September (Nadef) and more than 0.1% higher than in April Def estimates (0.7 %), and to be compared with the robust growth in the main reference countries: United Kingdom (2.2%), Germany (1.7%) and France (1.2%).

With the annual estimates Istat also revised the time series of some aggregates for the 1995-2012 period, which led to an average revision of about 0.1% of GDP level ( for 2014 the decline was 2 billion of GDP at current prices compared to the September data). Among the sectors, the year of the Expo value added in agriculture has registered increases in volume (3.8%), in industry excluding construction (1.3%) and service activities (0.4% ). While construction declined by 0.7%.

The GDP in 2015 to 0.8% is “a figure very close to the government’s forecast – said Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan -. The deficit to 2.6% is exactly the expected data and the debt has stabilized, basic premise because you start to go down in 2016 “. Istat estimates the public finances are still provisional but in fact a photograph of the debt / GDP retracement level at 132.6% (vs. 132.8 expected by Nadef the planning scenario), a deficit / GDP to 2.6% in decrease of 5.5 billion compared to 2014 (2.6% also Nadef) and a primary surplus down slightly to 1.5 (1.7%). In this context, compared to 2014 would drop to three decimal places even the tax burden, now at 43.3%, compared to current revenues in growth of 0.8% to 47.4% due to a higher VAT revenues, which more than offset the lower revenue from indirect taxes, IRPEF, IRES and substitute tax. In 2015 as well, total output fell by a decimal point (to 50.4%), while the stabilization of rates has produced a further decline in interest expense (8% after declining 4.2% in 2014; we have gone from 76.4 billion paid in 2011 to 68.4 in 2015). The strong increase in other capital outlays (+ 17.7%) weighed down by higher investment grants and from the repayment of arrears on pensions by 2012.

For the Minister Padoan the Istat framework confirms that the Government has been able to maintain the fiscal stance: “beyond the announcements of new tax cuts, which will still placed in a compliance framework, the impact of the cuts should be evaluated already made.” Even from Brussels now is the recognition that the ISTAT figures are in line with forecasts. In the latest published estimates, the EU indicated a 0.8% growth for 2015, a deficit of 2.6% and a debt to 132.8%. The one with Europe “is a complicated game, but Juncker said that austerity is stupid. We agree, by the time we say: if the EU finally take the path of growth, courage, investment, innovation and not just austerity, it is a good thing, “said Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, the Tg1, remembering that “this year has blocked the increase in debt, from next year falls: it is right to be careful to the accounts but without growth, Europe has no future.” Also will drop the deficit, promises even Renzi. While the drop in taxes will continue even if “it is still premature to say how intervention”. Finally, the commitment to the South: “More investment in innovation and research and, above all, of legality and transparency.”

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