Despite the censorship, collected last week from the parliamentary Office budget, which considers the economic forecasts of the government, “off-line”, the executive confirms the growth forecasts for the next year, by fixing the slider of the Gdp to +1% in 2017, while the net debt will be equal to 2 per cent. It reiterated the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan, in a hearing in front of the commissions Budget of the Rooms on the update Note of the Def 2016. Between the estimates of macroeconomic of the Note, the Def-and those of the panel that Upb exists “a difference content, which seems to us not meaningful”, explained Padoan, returned to illustrating the economic objectives of the government in view of the forthcoming session of the financial statements.
In 2017, the effect of Gdp +0.8% in the III quarter of 2016
To justify the forecasts supported by the sword by the government in the face of reactions chilly if not critical of the Upb, the bank of Italy and the Court of auditors Padoan has then cited the new data of quarterly accounts and, in particular, “the data of industrial production in August, +1.7% on the previous month”, induces increase “the estimates of real Gdp growth for the third quarter, even assuming that the leap is offset by an equivalent change in economic negative in September”. From here the choice to “confirm the forecast of real Gdp growth of 0.8% for this year”, and to count on a effect positive on the 2017 increase “provides further support to the forecast of the government”.The measures of the manoeuvre in the pipeline will lead to changes in the Gdp of 0.4%, which added 0.6% to growth under trend determines the increase of 1% estimated by the government.
In the law of the Budget "Package Development" by 3.8 billion euros
The numbers contained in the table attached to the report of the minister outline a Budget for the 2017 measures a total of € 24.5 billion, of which 22,5 with effects on growth, and covers 18.4 billion. Confirmed, in particular, many of the chapters emerged in the past few weeks. The “Package development”, in particular, will be able to count on approximately 3.8 billion euros to fund major investments in public works and safety of the schools, but also the refinancing of the guarantee Fund for Smes and of the “New Sabatini”, in addition to the “extension of the entire package of tax incentives”, ecobonus, furniture and renovations, “strongly enhanced” for seismic safety. For competitiveness (superammortamento, Industry 4.0, R&d) in 2017, there are 347 million euros, with an impact on Gdp of 0.15 percentage points.
incoming 3,15 bn for social policy
From the reading of the table, we can see then that interventions for social policies, the next manoeuvre will have an effect on Gdp of +0.1% and will have a total 3.15 billion by 2017. In the social expenditure, the minister explained, “including the adjustment of minimum pensions and resources for the
families, human capital, and the renewal of contracts in the public sector”. The next year the interventions of the further spending review and the downward revision of some items of expenditure and endowment funds will ensure instead the resources for 2,642 billion euros.
the Government defends the Def, Padoan back in Parliament
Upb: yes to validation if the estimates in the document financial statements
The session was opened with the reading by the chairman of the Budget committee of Deputies, Francesco Boccia, a letter in which the president of the parliamentary Office of the budget, Giuseppe Pisauro for its part has reiterated the impossibility, at the time, “to validate the estimates set out by the government with the update of the Def”. Ok that could be possible if the “draft budgetary plan” that the government will send to Brussels will contain forecasts that were different. The Upb then recalls that “the principle of comply or explain, does not oblige the Government to comply but requests that it illustrates the reasons for which it considers it to confirm their own evaluations or conform to those of the Office”. In the letter he then stated that “it remains open to the process of validation, if different, and of the macroeconomic forecasts that will be presented in the framework of the financial statements.
Note to the Def in the Classroom tomorrow afternoon
confirmation of the ratio of deficit-to-Gdp ratio to 2% in 2017 by the government could induce the parliamentary Office budget to confirm the lack of validation of the update Note of the Def, which provides a growth to 1% next year. The judgment of the Upb is particularly important because it is expected by the european Union: in the case in which the Upb does not validate the Final, the government will be obliged to explain their reasons to Brussels.The update to the Def will be examined from the Senate floor tomorrow from 16.30, while in the Chamber, the Assembly shall start the examination from 17.
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