As water has passed under the bridge in the last two years, that is since the EBA and the ECB had conducted the latest stress tests on the European banking system. Since then, the sector has demonstrated the ability to improve their capacity to absorb any shocks, in a real race to resilience in which Italy – for once – is listed as best in class among the biggest countries, and second absolutely just behind Belgium.
After the night of the results, it started to work on 20 thousand data published by the EBA. And among these one stands in part unexpected, much of which yesterday was talk among bankers and experts: between 2014 and 2016, ie by comparing the last two examinations, Italian banks are the ones that have seen the rise of less’ Scenario adverse impact on its Common equity tier 1. In practice, are the ones that in these two years have been able to build the best defenses in the event of shocks, including increases, reallocation of capital and diversification of revenues.
Some figures, derived from the first processing carried out by KPMG in equal samples, can be useful. First, the credentials: in 2014 the European banks had submitted to stress tests (carried on the balance sheets 2013) with an average CET1 11.3%, this year rose to 210 basis points to 13.4%; the Italian, matches from 9.6%, are improved by 250 basis points to 12.1%. Now the effects of the shock: two years ago had resulted on average in Europe the loss of 252 basis points, the impact of this year rose to 391 (139 points); The Italian had recorded a potential loss of 339 points, this time they dealt with just eight points more, that is, 347. Not only are below average, but – after Belgium, however, that in 2014 – are to having recorded the least progress, while Germany has risen from 407 to 540 points of potential impact, France from 221 to 316, Spain 151 to 384, the UK 243 to 362.
” the data in effect is significant – comments Giovanni Pepe, KPMG partner – because it also emerges after a stress test that potentially could be very detrimental to Italians institutes, such visas haircuts applied on government bonds and the very strict assumptions on behavior of deposits. ” Therefore, under the track and despite the lack of confidence in the market, Italian banks today are with wider shoulders. And, perhaps even more surprising news, with a structure of revenues more resistant to a possible shock: “In the adverse scenario average Italian banks are capable of producing more profits, ie 367 basis points for the purposes of CET1, compared to the European ones, which stop at 235, “notes still Pepe:” at least in part the stress tests debunk a commonplace, that the excessive dependence of the revenues of Italian banks by net interest income.
<'p> There will be time and space to deepen in the coming days. But the first analysis of the data published from London seem to inspire some confidence (at least among the bankers). It is especially true for those who, like Intesa Sanpaolo, saw confirmed its continental leadership in terms of capitalization, “We are the strongest in Europe among the largest banks in terms of capital strength and our ratios are substantially in excess of regulatory requirements, even in the scenario more adverse, “he said yesterday the CEO, Carlo Messina. Who also stressed that “Intesa Sanpaolo has as its best European bank in terms of low leverage, with an allocation of excess cash resources compared to the requirements of 2018″; a situation, this, that will obviously affect the credit (24 billion in the medium-long term credit disbursed in the first half) and profitability, “Thanks to this strength we can reward our shareholders with significant returns and dividends, as we have done in these years to continue to do so, “he insisted yesterday Messina.
While waiting to know the reaction of the markets, other institutions are considering the dissemination of its results. In total, in fact, there are 15 banks subjected to stress tests in 2016 (11 of which, for the record, were assisted by Prometeia): 5 and 10 by the EBA informally by the ECB and some of these could follow the example of Mediobanca that Friday night released its result (Cet all’11,46 1% shock), among the best in Europe.
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