MILAN – 15:30. Financial markets treat weak in the wake of the decline in oil prices and the uncertain closing of Asian Squares. Milan Expands the red of the start and lost 1.2%, with Fca penalized by possible involvement in the investigation of emissions in Germany. The ACEA, the Association of European manufacturers, “takes note” of the ads, but intervenes with an official position: “All tested vehicles comply with current regulatory requirements”. Even the weak banking sector, while Moody’s warned about possible impacts for banks – Unicredit in particular – from the commitment in the fund Atlas. The other EU lists treat weak: London lost 0.7% in line with Frankfurt , Paris yields 0.55%. Wall Street , recovering from a checkered session, again in red: the Dow Jones lost 0.30% below 18 thousand points, the S & amp; P500 that leaves 0.28% to 2085.62 points and the Nasdaq showing a decline of 0.25% to 4893.92 points.
it does not help the mood of the markets as expected given day (calendar), that the Ifo index on the confidence German companies : with minor variations, the index fell to 106.6 points in April from 106.7 in March and especially against expectations which estimated an increase to 107 points. The index on current conditions fell to 113.2 (from 113.8) with a consensus of 113.8 while the expectations rose to 100.4 from 100, however, below the 100.7 consensus. More substantial agenda of the United States, which provides for the sale of new homes, orders for durable goods, the services PMI and consumer confidence. Also Mario Draghi is the ECB window to see if the extraordinary measures put in place by the central institution are paying off: Friday will be published data on the Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of the year , earlier than usual (just one month after the end of the reference period, as with the US and UK); the publication is to fall, so, along with the inflation readings.
If the European Central Bank expects the economy confirmation of the correctness of monetary policy decisions, the Fed back to take center stage. As noted by analysts, the position taken by Frankfurt (leave unchanged stimuli and understand what effect the measures already put in place, before taking further steps) opens a hole at Janet Yellen for the second upward rate since last December. If this happened while the ECB announces new incentives, in fact, it would open a gap between euro and dollar too dangerous for American industries: Use a coin in strengthening (for granted in the case of a rise in US interest rates, while the ECB printing money) depress foreign trade with stars and stripes. According to the market, the chances of a touch up the cost of borrowing from the Fed as early as the Wednesday, April 27 meeting are zero, and they get up to one in five for the June meeting. But in the third quarter of the year could reach the Fed’s move.
‘ € is above share $ 1.12, but the markets are looking to Thursday’s BoJ meeting to see if others will announce economic stimulus. The agency Bloomberg said that the BOJ could approve of the banking system damaged by supporting policy measures of negative rates and the news has weakened the yen in the closing of last Friday, only to catch up today. The European currency is changing hands at $ 1.126 and 125 yen. The spread between ten-year BTPs and German counterparts stabilizes in area 125 basis points, with a yield of 1.47% Italian bonds. The yield has revised the highest level since last February: the discussions on greek debt are rekindling some tension on the bond side.
It also stabilizes the price of oil, weak in the morning after a week full of ski. Investors, particularly in the Asian market, took place after the news that the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. intends to complete in May the expansion of the Shaybah field, keeping to 12 million barrels a day to its production capacity. The opening of Wall Street, WTI back above $ 43.8 a barrel, while Brent regained share $ 45. On the market, however, dominate the expectations for a rise in black gold prices: the “long” positions, meaning that a bet on a growing trend of values, are the highest since May last year, and despite the failure of the Doha summit to freeze the production crude has returned from an 8% last week, driven by growth in US consumption. Little blur, finally, the gold marking $ 1,235 an ounce.
A weak start to the week Tokyo Stock Exchange , which closed down 0.76% to 17,439.30 points. Down around half a percentage point for the Stock Exchange Shanghai .
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