Growth, IMF: “Italy in the medium term and can do as best of Germany” – The Daily

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“Italy can do more” and in terms of growth , in the medium term, is “certainly possible” that can do as or best Germany , as advocated by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi . He said Thomas Helbling of the economic department of the International Monetary Fund , pointing out however that in the long term progress of GDP comparable to the German is “difficult” because the productivity Italian is low. “Something important has already happened, such as Jobs Act ” continued Helbling. “The next step must be to strengthen the sector bank and the system of defaults , and then strengthen productivity, which requires an improvement in public administration, reduce the weight of the sector Private and improve conditions for small and medium enterprises “.

For now, the World Economic Outlook spread Tuesday, the IMF has revised estimates of 0.1% GDP growth of the Peninsula for this year and next: according to the new forecast, the growth will be in the 0.8% in 2015 and accelerate to + 1.3% in 2016. In contrast, Germany is expected to see the economy grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with a downward revision of one tenth of a percentage point for each of the two years.

The economists’ forecasts of Washington to Italy remain more cautious than those of the government Renzi, that according to the def September GDP expected at 0.9% in 2015 and 1.6% next year. But nonetheless mark a strengthening of the recovery Italian, against as opposed to a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points of growth due to the slowdown of the international China and the recession of the Brazil . The world GDP will rise this year’s 3.1% , after the 3.4% achieved in 2014, before rebounding next year a + 3.6% . “This decline reflects a further slowdown in emerging economies, and the modest recovery in economic activity in the advanced economies, particularly the euro area “, the report said.

As for the labor market, the organization headed by Christine Lagarde has estimated that in Italy the unemployment will decline this year to 12.2% (-0.5% compared to 2014) and then decreased again to ‘ 11.9% in 2016, while confirming the weak inflation , with prices consumption that should replicate the 0.2% of 2014 and an acceleration of prices due next year at the 0.7% . The debt , however, rise further to 133.1% from 132.1% of GDP in 2014, to stand at 132.3% in 2016 and down to 123% in 2020.

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