The Bank of Italy applies the brakes on the Def. “The gdp in 2017 is 1%? Ambitious goal” – Rai News

An overestimation, which warns the Parliamentary Office Budget, reveals an excess of optimism and could lead “to an outcome that is not positive of the process of validation of the framework in 2017 and, in particular, estimates of Gdp growth for the next year, both in real terms than nominal

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04 October, 2016To the Bank of Italy estimates on the growth contained in the Def are ambitious. For the Office of the parliamentary budget overly optimistic. For the Court of Auditors, there are risks to the downside. In short, for all of these three institutions passed the audition yesterday, the growth to 1% for 2017, on which the Government built its plant macro-economic risks remain a chimera.

“In the scenario programme for the 2017, the dynamics of the product is significantly greater than that of the framework of the trend. The goal is ambitious,” says the commissions Budget of the house and Senate, the deputy general manager of the Bank of Italy, Luigi Federico Signorini. According to the via Nazionale, “in the evaluations of the government’s failure to increase the Vat would have a positive impact on the growth rate of Gdp amounted to 0.3 percentage points in 2017, an effect rather than econometric estimates based on the data of the past.”

The recipe of Via Nazionale? Spending Review
The executive, Palazzo Koch suggests to eliminate waste and cut costs of the public administration to contain the recessionary effects” of fiscal consolidation. For Signorini, “the reduction of expenditure and is a significant result, and indeed, it is essential to continue with ever greater determination in working on this road, if you want to keep the public finances under control without counting only on the level of today’s exceptionally low interest rates, and a collapse of investment, the revitalization is needed for growth”.

Court of Auditors: Risk to the downside for the Gdp
A path that even the Court of Auditors invites you to follow. “The resources freed up by a more gradual process of convergence towards the balance of the budget are allocated to interventions that can affect the growth potential of the country,” said the president Arturo Martucci of Scarfizzi.

because, detects, “there is potential fragility of the economic framework that are reflected on the path the programmatic public finance” with “a downside risk” to the outlook of the Gdp.

The Parliamentary Office Budget: Excess of optimism
A weakness that threatens to undermine the planning framework of public finance, according to theOffice of the parliamentary Budget. The growth forecast for 2017, the supports president, Giuseppe Pisauro, “are marked by an excess of optimism” and also those for the year 2018 appear to be “out of line” when compared to the estimates of the Office of the parliamentary budget.

An overestimate, which, he warns, may push the Upb “to an outcome that is not positive of the process of validation of the framework in 2017 and, in particular, estimates of Gdp growth for the next year, both in real terms than nominal”.

And to risk rejection, continues Pisauro and also the demand for greater flexibility enhanced the Eu to cover the costs for migrants and earthquake, a space equal to 0.4% and bring the deficit / Gdp ratio of 2.4%. “There is uncertainty about the possibility that the request to consider the expenses mentioned which related to the events unusual, in the limit of the amount of 4-tenths of Gdp, to be accepted in europe”, stresses the Upb.