Improve the deficit/gdp ratio and the tax burden, but the consumption is firm and the household spending rises just 0.1%. In the first two quarters of this year has registered a net borrowing equal to 2.3% of gdp (3% in the corresponding period of the previous year). More in particular, as the certificate this morning to Istat, the general government net borrowing in relation to gross domestic product in the second quarter amounted to 0.2% compared to 0.9% in the corresponding quarter of 2015.
this Is the lowest level since the second quarter of 2007. At the end of September the government revised the target deficit/gdp for this year to 2.4%, up one-tenth of a point. And today, the Istat has revised downward the estimated last September 2 on the variation acquired growth for the year 2016: the first was expected +0.7% and now is seen +0.6%.
in More detail, in the second quarter total expenditure declined by 0.8% year-on-year, while total receipts have marked up +0.8%. In addition, the primary balance (net lending/borrowing net of interest expense) in the second quarter is a positive result for 18.614 million (16.707 million in the corresponding quarter of 2015). The relative impact on the gdp was equal to 4.4% compared with 4.1% in the second quarter of 2015. While in the first six months of this year, in terms of the impact on gdp, the primary balance was positive and equal to 1.7% of gdp (1.4 per cent in the same period of the year 2015).
the current balance (savings) in the second quarter is a positive result for 13.140 million euro, an improvement of 742 million compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The incidence on the gdp has been in this case (3.1%), compared with 3% in the second quarter of 2015. Overall, in the first two quarters of the year, the current account balance-to-gdp ratio was positive and equal to 0.6% (0.4% in the corresponding period of the year 2015).
At the same time, in the second quarter of the year, the tax burden was equal to 42.3%, registering a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year. Despite this, the propensity to save was at record levels: in the second quarter of the year is, in fact, climb to 9.6%, the highest level since the first quarter of 2010. In practice, 0.9 percentage points more compared to the previous quarter and 1.4 percentage points vis-à-vis the same period of 2015.
The cyclical increase in the propensity to save compared to the previous quarter derives from a growth in the disposable income of consumer households significantly more sustained than that of the final consumption of 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively. In the face of such dynamics of disposable income, with an increase in the cyclical deflator implicit in consumer spending of 0.1%, the purchasing power is increased 1.1%. In terms of inflation, the disposable income of consumer households grew by 2.8%, while the deflator implicit consumption of the families has suffered a decrease of 0.1%, resulting in a growth of the purchasing power of 2.9%.
The investment rate of consumer households (defined as the ratio between gfcf of consumer households, which comprise only purchases of homes, and disposable income) in the second quarter was up 5.9%, unchanged compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the corresponding quarter of 2015.
“A serious fact, if we consider that the expenditure of households represents 60% of gdp. If you want to the growth, in short, is on fuel consumption that must be bet to have a trend reversal. Also, it is a deterioration with respect to 2015,” commented Massimiliano Dona, secretary of the National Union of Consumers.
“Very positive, however, the increase of the purchasing power of families, even if it is mainly due to the deflation. A confirmation of the fact that the lowering of prices has positive effects for those who goes shopping every day, and that, therefore, should not be demonized. If anything, we should remove the causes of deflation, i.e. the domestic demand asphyxiated,” he concluded Gives.
For Codacons, the Italian are more “ants” and less “cicadas”, put aside the money deferring purchases for the future. Despite the increase in the purchasing power of 2.9% in the second quarter, the consumption of the citizens are at stake, he observed the president Carlo Rienzi. “This is because consumer confidence continues to decline, and households prefer to postpone purchases, putting aside the money. The propensity to save grows as well by 1.4% on an annual basis. Given that, however, does not help the Italian economy”.
In the face of the growth of disposable income and purchasing power, the consumption does not leave as they should “and this is because it has not been implemented any measure of support to domestic demand from the part of the government, which remains at the window, looking at the crisis of trade and of consumption,” said Rienzi.
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