Milan – The International Monetary Fund lit a beacon on global growth and revises downwards its estimates for the economy mondialer: the planet’s GDP will grow this year by 3.1%, 0.2 percentage points less than forecast in July, while next year will rise by 3.6% (or 0.2 percentage points less than previously expected). It should be better for Italy that according to economists Washigton experience a “growth stronger than expected”: enough to raise estimates of the year to 0.8% (0.1 percentage points higher than the estimates) and + 1.3% in 2016 (+0.1 percentage points).
“The Holy Grail of a robust recovery and sinronizzata” warns the chief economist of the Institute of Washington, Maurice Obstfeld, presenting the autumn economic report, “remains elusive” and “the downside risks for the world economy appear more pronounced today than a few months ago.” Hence the scissors forecasts. On the other hand, on the overall weigh “three powerful forces”, underscores Obstfeld. First, the ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, which is shifting its driver from exports to domestic consumption and the manufacturing and services; therefore, the fall in commodity prices; Finally, the looming rise in interest rates in the United States.
The economy advanced. The growth will increase slightly this year and next. In particular, according to the Fund, GDP will accelerate from 1.8% in 2014 to 2% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2016. Compared to July there is a cut of 0.1% for this year and 0.2% next. To drag the rebound will be the United States, where the product is expected to climb by 2.6% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Intended to strengthen also appears “modest” recovery in the euro area (+1, 5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016). It improves growth in France (+ 1.2% and + 1.5%), in Italy and especially in Spain (+ 3.1% and + 2.5%). In Germany, the increase should instead remain at around 1.5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. “The
medium-term prospects,” the report warns, however, “remain braked, reflecting a combination of low investment, unfavorable demographic trends and weak productivity growth. “
emerging countries. The growth will slow from 4.6% in 2014 to 4% in 2015, and then riaccelerate to 4.5% in 2016. Compared to July there is a cut of 0.2%. The fifth row of slowing annual growth for this group of countries, said the Fund, primarily reflecting the weaker trend of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the slowdown in China from 7.3% in 2014 to 6.8% in 2015 up to 6.3% in 2014. In particular, although the deceleration of China is in line with the predictions of its impact outside world it is larger than the estimates, because of the drop in commodity prices and reduced imports.
Downside risks. “As the distribution of risks in the short term, it is easier than the predictions fail to excessive expectations for upward surprises”, warns the IMF . Among the deepest shadows: a further decline in oil prices and raw materials, a slowdown in the Chinese economy more widely than expected, a violent adjustment of the financial markets, a further appreciation of the dollar, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Middle East.
Low rates. In advanced economies, an accommodative monetary policy continues to be essential. But the Fund also calls on countries with fiscal space, such as Germany, to use it to stimulate public investment, especially in infrastructure quality. Emerging countries should instead increase their resilience to shocks by diversifying their economies.
Italian. Unemployment is expected to fall below the 12% threshold. According to the technicians of the Fund the jobless rate will decline from 12.7% in 2014 to 12.2% in 2015 and up to 11.9% in 2016. Inflation will rise again in 2016, going to 0.7 % from 0.2% this year. The current account surplus will improve to 2% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016. The increase in domestic consumption is expected to be around 1%, and private up 0.7% in 2015 and of ‘ 1.1% in 2016. Public debt will rise in 2015 to 133.1% from 132.1% in 2014, to stand at 132.3% in 2016: in 2020 will be at 123%. The deficit will decline this year to 2.7% from 3.0% in 2014, before falling in 2016 to 2.0%. It provides the IMF, revising upwards the estimates in April when he was expected to Italy a deficit of 2.6% this year and 1.7% in 2016.
No comments:
Post a Comment