Confcommercio, jump in consumption in July (2.1%): this is the best result since 2010 – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published September 9, 2015 at 11:13.
The last change is the September 9, 2015 at 11:45.

Dodge consumption of Italians in July. The indicator Confcommercio records show an increase of 0.4% on the previous month and above the 2.1% trend, the highest since 2010. Confcommercio also confirms its forecast for GDP growth by 1, 1% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.

The Study Centre of Confcommercio analyzed data of recent months and noted the improvement in demand, supported by a new round of purchases of durable goods. Recovery and confidence begin to consolidate, albeit in a climate of caution especially by businesses, particularly the manufacturing sector. Positive signals also in the labor market. Looking at the evolution of the index of consumption, results of July are due to an increase in demand for goods and a reduction of the component relating to services. Significant increases for goods and services for the home (especially electricity), mobility (recovered cars and motorcycles).

On a trend basis, positive both goods (+ 2.3%) and services (+ 1.6%). The largest increases related mobility (+ 8.8%) and communications (+ 5.1%). They were down even the food, beverages and tobacco (-0.2%). According to the Office studies inflation should register in September down 0.3% on the month and an increase of the same amount of years. Based on a simulation study of the Office of the evolution of GDP in the coming quarters, which saw a 1.4% growth trend in the third quarter and by 2% in the quarter, the government could meet the challenge of maintaining growth at this level (close to 2%) even in the middle of 2016 due to fiscal policies relaxing.

To the merchants association, the increase “is part of a context in which almost all indicators begin to take a positive tone, consolidating the trend of economic recovery, although that has now gone particularly strong, now appears less fragile than a few months ago. ” According Confcommercio improves perceived confidence of households, while “appears more prudent attitude of companies.”

The signs not now “are stored, there is a revival in consumption and confidence families is on maximum levels, “he explained the president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli, presenting data. “The recovery is there, but care must be exercised.” And after “many years of crisis, the government must win the challenge of turning it into a growth robust, durable, diffuse cutting taxes on businesses and families.”

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